Having seen the dollar rally on Wednesday, yesterday managed a pullback. For the most part, it was pretty normal but EUR/USD decided that it wanted to be the odd one out and made a new high above 1.2081 to reach 1.2088 – just 4 points below the 1.2092 high set on the 8th of September. Double Top maybe? (Should be.)
I’m not exactly comfortable with the situation so it will be best to take things cautiously. However, USD/CHF took the opportunity to see a second decline as I had wondered yesterday while GBP/USD decided to have a peek in the attic of the pullback. At the same time, USD/JPY decided to take a pullback in the Wave b/iii. Within the four majors we have a general balance so we need to watch the dollar downside and make sure that the dollar begins to push higher again. Overall, excluding EUR/USD, the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds have absorbed the pullback and remain dollar bullish side of the Clouds. Thus, we need them to maintain a firmer bullish momentum.
With EUR/USD rallying higher than I had expected, along with USD/JPY for the first half of the day, it allowed EUR/JPY to make a new high above 135.62 to reach 136.36. There may be a chance of one more blip higher but overall we should see losses…
As for the Antipodean, being upside down, it took the high road – not what I had expected but both hourly & 4-hour bearish divergences remain in place so we still need to watch for a reversal indication but it still looks as if it will edge a bit higher before the reversal.
By Ian Copsey
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